The advertising market in the UK will return to growth in Q3 2010 for the first time since 2008, a new forecast from the Advertising Association and Warc has predicted. According to the Report total adspend is estimated to have fallen 12.7% in 2009. Overall, this would amount to the most severe recession faced by the industry since the survey was launched in 1982.
Revenue levels decreased by 13.2% in Q3 2009, a rate of contraction that is expected to moderate to 5.2% in Q4. By medium, the internet was the only channel to see figures improve in the nine months of last year, up by 3.7% in all.
In contrast, press ad sales were off by 25.5% in the same timeframe, with outdoor down by 20.4%, and TV, radio and direct mail all posting declines in the mid-double digits. Cinema witnessed a more modest drop of 1.8%, and actually enjoyed an expansion of 10.2% during Q3.
The web’s share of adspend rose by just over 4% in Q3 yoy. Press was down by a similar amount on this measure, with all other major media essentially flat.
Looking forward, it is estimated that advertising revenues will decline by 3.8% in Q1 2010 and 0.8% in Q2, before registering an uptick of 2.8% in Q3.
So what effect, if any will this have on the PR sector? Many PR firms have thrived during the recession as many businesses have cut overall marketing spend and ploughed more into reputation management and brand building by PR channels. As advertising comes to the fore again, many PR’s will have to resume the regular fight to keep their share of the pot against the big spending ad boys.
However, this time it may be different. As the battleground for ownership of social media continues, savvier marketers are switching on to the fact that PR’s have always been the best people